This is the question I probably get asked more than any other — and where I think homeowners get taken advantage of most often.
The age and repair cost formula.
A common rule of thumb: multiply the age of the system by the cost of the repair. If that number exceeds $5,000, replacement starts to make more financial sense. A $400 capacitor replacement on a 12-year-old system? Easy call — repair it. A $2,500 compressor replacement on a 20-year-old system? Replacement probably makes more sense.
What I actually look at in the field:
Age of the system, condition of the coils, refrigerant type, history of repairs, and quality of the original installation. A 15-year-old system that’s been well maintained with clean coils might have another 5–7 good years. A poorly installed system running hard and dirty for 12 years might be near the end even though it’s not that old on paper.
The refrigerant factor.
If you have an older R-22 system needing a refrigerant repair, that changes the math. R-22 is expensive to source now and the system won’t be getting younger. That’s often a situation where I’ll recommend replacement — not because the system is dead, but because the economics of keeping it alive don’t make long-term sense.
What to watch out for:
A technician who recommends full replacement before completing a thorough diagnosis. A good tech rules out the simple stuff first. If someone jumps to a $10,000 replacement on a first visit without exhausting repair options, that’s a red flag. I’ve built my business on giving people straight information and letting them make their own decision.
By Gregg DeMille, owner of Timber Creek Services in Farr West, Utah.
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